How we simultaneously underestimate and overestimate ourselves, and how to avoid both
Is there any more overused cliché than “less is more”?
I guess that’s kind of ironic, given the spirit of the saying. But I digress.
There’s an application for the aphorism that I don’t think gets enough attention. It has to do with achieving goals and managing tasks. When it comes to estimating the goals you can achieve in a given time, we tend to underestimate ourselves. But we shouldn’t.
However, when it comes to filling up our to-do lists for the day, we tend to overestimate what we can get done. But once again, we shouldn’t.
Both of these errors in estimation yield the same result: we get frustrated. Our motivation dwindles. We fall short of what we know is our potential.
And as I pointed out at the outset, the fix is simple: remember that less is more.
Goals: More is More
If you are serious about your goals, you need to dedicate a separate block of time for thinking about them. And during that time, resist the urge to think small. That is, think only about the what, and not about the how.
Rather than thinking about how you will achieve the goal, and letting that dictate what the goal is, think about what you really want. Then, put it into words that reflect your honest desire for what you want things to be like. Don’t be afraid to go big.
That’s the what. That’s the more portion.
Tasks: More is Less
Once goals are set, carve out a different block of time to think about the how. This is where you plan out the steps.
This is where you think about how long it might take. It’s when you get realistic, and descend from the heights of your ambitious future down to what you can actually do in the present. This is the less part.
Resist the temptation to think that tomorrow’s to-do list has to be as grandiose as your goals. Remember that goals aren’t achieved in a day. Achieving them is a marathon, not a sprint. So pace yourself. Failing to do so will just end up burning you out quickly. The result will be fewer goals achieved, or much less satisfying versions of goals achieved.
More ends up being less.
The Balance
The truth is, we don’t usually get as many things done in a day as we think we could (or should). And when we write down a bunch of items on today’s list, we unconsciously create an expectation of ourselves that those things will get done. And when they don’t, we feel let down.
That feeling saps our motivation for tomorrow. And as long as that process repeats each day, it acts like a hole in our fuel line. The vital fuel that we need to reach our goals leaks out and we run out of gas long before we accomplish what we set out to.
The way to avoid this is to think small when planning the tasks for each day. Build a smaller to do list. Put fewer,—but more important—things on the list. Allow for buffer time to handle the inevitable “other stuff” that comes up each day.
Repeat this each day. Over time, less becomes more. Put less on your plate each day, achieve more over time.
Build Today Better
There are two practices I advocate for on the Today System that come directly from this “less is more” principle. They’re helpful to take into consideration when you’re creating your card each day:
- the 1.25x rule
- no more than 9 items per day
Let’s look at each on in turn.
The 1.25x Rule
The 1.25x rule is a great simple way to decide how many (or few) items should be on your card on a given day. For each hour of available time in your day, multiply it by 1.25, and that’s how many items you should put on your card.
Take a look at your calendar, and think through your day. How many hours are already booked? How many meetings do you have? How many hours are eaten up by existing commitments and routines?
Think of dinner, clean-up, conversation, socializing, errands, transit time, etc. These are all real minutes and hours you don’t have to use to get your items done. So add those estimated hours to however many hours you have on your calendar for meetings and appointments. Subtract that from your total waking hours. That’s your free time for today.
Why 1.25 items per hour? Let’s assume you can get an item done in 30 minutes. That would mean you could (theoretically) get 2 items done per hour. But as any project manager will tell you, our estimates of how long something will actually take don’t often pan out. A buffer is almost always necessary.
Only 9 Items Per Day
It’s been well established that we tend to overestimate how much we can get done in a day. Even on our best days, things happen. We get interrupted. We have to re-review information. We have to consult someone. A new idea related to a project can hit us, and we’re off trying to implement it. Examples abound.
Given all that, why put yourself in the position of having way too much left to do, and not enough time? Be realistic. 9 things is a lot to get done in a day.
Another consideration is that the top 2-3 items on your card each day should be ones that help you make meaningful progress on important goals. It stands to reason that those items probably require a decent amount of time and/or energy. So it’s unlikely that you could get those things, plus 6 others, done in a day. That’s a recipe for burnout.
Plus, having too many items on your card can be a distraction from your important items. If you do have 3 big important items on the top of your card, plus 8 others staring you in the face, it can be difficult to concentrate. You may end up sacrificing your focus on those 2-3 important items because you don’t want to leave all those other items undone.
When it comes to productivity, either underestimating or overestimating yourself can be harmful. Don’t make either mistake. Understand that when it comes to goals, more is more. When comes to projects and tasks, less is more. Then act accordingly.
